The $64K Dollar Question When Order Banks Reopen.

I have the same concerns. We shouldn’t be penalized for buying from a local dealer.

This is just my opinion, but I would not necessarily recommend putting an order in for 23 MY this late. If rumors hold true, there may be a mid-cycle refresh coming for 24. By the time your 23 even gets built, they could have announced the new MY. Unless you really love the Bronco as-is, it may be worth it to wait. Competition is fierce between Ford and Jeep; it’s possible we will see some really nice additions. I, for one, am hoping the all digital dash trickles down. Any current Bronco owner will tell you there are some quirky things about their truck. If Ford fixes some of them next year, you’ll be much happier. It will finally also open up the used market for cheaper slightly-mall-crawled Broncos.

Yup….definitely wait - for a refresh that may/may not happen. For a truck’s features that may/may not change…….
If you like the vehicle purchase it as/is, today (or as ordered).

But if you wait long enough, things will change 😂😂

Okay, so bear with me, this will probably be a long post.

Here is a hyper-simplified version of the allocation model:

Say Ford produces 1000 Broncos a month. For the sake of simplicity we'll just assume Wildtrak is the only constraint, and currently Ford can produce 220 (or 22%) Wildtraks a month.

Now say we have three dealers in the same region:

• Mega-dealer A
  • Sells 70% of the region's sales volume a month
  • Has 280 outstanding Wildtrak orders
• Mid-sized dealer B
  • Sells 25% Broncos a month
  • Has 5 outstanding Wildtrak orders
• Tiny dealer C
  • Sells 5% of the region's sales volume a month
  • Has 10 outstanding Wildtrak orders

Now say the region is allocated 50 Broncos a month. Based on the constraint, we would expect roughly 11 of those to be Wildtraks. In that case we would expect the Wildtraks to be allocated as follows:

• Dealer A - 7-8 Allocations
• Dealer B - 2-3 Allocations
• Dealer C - 0-1 Allocation

So if you ordered from Dealer A, you are effectively screwed unless you were up in front of line, they just straight-up took too many orders. If you ordered from Dealer B, the most you'd have to wait for a build date is 3 months. If you ordered from Dealer C, you may be screwed, maybe not, depends on the dice roll honestly.

Some would say "Well Dealer A has more Wildtrak orders, so they should get the vast majority of the Wildtrak allocation." Sure... but then if you ordered at any of the other dealers other than Dealer A you were essentially screwed from the very beginning and never had a chance at receiving a Wildtrak. You had to order from Dealer A to get a Wildtrak. That's why the allocation system is structured the way it is.

------

SO... what does this mean.

Dealers received allocation estimates about a month ago (keyword being "estimates"). Unlike years in past, those allocation estimates had a breakdown of how much of each option/package a dealer could be expected to get. (We expect you to get 20 hard tops, 15 Wildtraks, etc. etc.).

IF dealers stick to those estimates, then anyone ordering from those dealers should be okay, and any existing orders at those dealers should also be fine. If the dealer says "eh... go ahead and order whatever the heck you want, we don't care"... then all of the customers at that dealer are basically getting screwed over and many will likely won't get built this year.

How does this impact existing order holders?? Well it depends on what your dealer did in the past. If you ordered from a dealer that took a bunch of online orders from around the country... they have WAY more orders than their past sales performance could ever support given the existing constraints. So... good luck. If you placed an order from a local dealer that didn't grab a bunch of extra orders online, then you're probably going to be okay simply because the amount of orders they received are likely proportional to their past sales performance.

I do expect Ford to prevent dealers from ordering some select options... but based on what we know now most of the responsibility is going to be placed on the dealers themselves. They have the necessarily information/estimates from Ford to understand how many orders and what options they can order. It's up to them to stick to that information, and if they don't and just open the floodgates, they're really doing a disservice to their customers.

RagnarKon

Okay, so bear with me, this will probably be a long post.

Here is a hyper-simplified version of the allocation model:

Say Ford produces 1000 Broncos a month. For the sake of simplicity we'll just assume Wildtrak is the only constraint, and currently Ford can produce 220 (or 22%) Wildtraks a month.

Now say we have three dealers in the same region:

• Mega-dealer A
  • Sells 70% of the region's sales volume a month
  • Has 280 outstanding Wildtrak orders
• Mid-sized dealer B
  • Sells 25% Broncos a month
  • Has 5 outstanding Wildtrak orders
• Tiny dealer C
  • Sells 5% of the region's sales volume a month
  • Has 10 outstanding Wildtrak orders

Now say the region is allocated 50 Broncos a month. Based on the constraint, we would expect roughly 11 of those to be Wildtraks. In that case we would expect the Wildtraks to be allocated as follows:

• Dealer A - 7-8 Allocations
• Dealer B - 2-3 Allocations
• Dealer C - 0-1 Allocation

So if you ordered from Dealer A, you are effectively screwed unless you were up in front of line, they just straight-up took too many orders. If you ordered from Dealer B, the most you'd have to wait for a build date is 3 months. If you ordered from Dealer C, you may be screwed, maybe not, depends on the dice roll honestly.

Some would say "Well Dealer A has more Wildtrak orders, so they should get the vast majority of the Wildtrak allocation." Sure... but then if you ordered at any of the other dealers other than Dealer A you were essentially screwed from the very beginning and never had a chance at receiving a Wildtrak. You had to order from Dealer A to get a Wildtrak. That's why the allocation system is structured the way it is.

------

SO... what does this mean.

Dealers received allocation estimates about a month ago (keyword being "estimates"). Unlike years in past, those allocation estimates had a breakdown of how much of each option/package a dealer could be expected to get. (We expect you to get 20 hard tops, 15 Wildtraks, etc. etc.).

IF dealers stick to those estimates, then anyone ordering from those dealers should be okay, and any existing orders at those dealers should also be fine. If the dealer says "eh... go ahead and order whatever the heck you want, we don't care"... then all of the customers at that dealer are basically getting screwed over and many will likely won't get built this year.

How does this impact existing order holders?? Well it depends on what your dealer did in the past. If you ordered from a dealer that took a bunch of online orders from around the country... they have WAY more orders than their past sales performance could ever support given the existing constraints. So... good luck. If you placed an order from a local dealer that didn't grab a bunch of extra orders online, then you're probably going to be okay simply because the amount of orders they received are likely proportional to their past sales performance.

I do expect Ford to prevent dealers from ordering some select options... but based on what we know now most of the responsibility is going to be placed on the dealers themselves. They have the necessarily information/estimates from Ford to understand how many orders and what options they can order. It's up to them to stick to that information, and if they don't and just open the floodgates, they're really doing a disservice to their customers.

I appreciate your analogy and perspective. It makes a lot of sense!

js31pilot

Yup….definitely wait - for a refresh that may/may not happen. For a truck’s features that may/may not change…….
If you like the vehicle purchase it as/is, today (or as ordered).

But if you wait long enough, things will change 😂😂

True. Is a gamble. But the fact that Ford isn’t carrying 23 orders into 24 or offering price protection is a good indicator that something’s happening for 24.

Sulley

True. Is a gamble. But the fact that Ford isn’t carrying 23 orders into 24 or offering price protection is a good indicator that something’s happening for 24.

Another pitfall is they may change something (or discontinue) you actually LIKE on the current version.
In my opinion if you like the vehicle as in right now, then put the order in (when able). If a person doesn’t think the vehicle is worth it (right now) then don’t.

js31pilot

Another pitfall is they may change something (or discontinue) you actually LIKE on the current version.
In my opinion if you like the vehicle as in right now, then put the order in (when able). If a person doesn’t think the vehicle is worth it (right now) then don’t.

Imagine if they discontinued the last two cup holders 🤣

RagnarKon

Okay, so bear with me, this will probably be a long post.

Here is a hyper-simplified version of the allocation model:

Say Ford produces 1000 Broncos a month. For the sake of simplicity we'll just assume Wildtrak is the only constraint, and currently Ford can produce 220 (or 22%) Wildtraks a month.

Now say we have three dealers in the same region:

• Mega-dealer A
  • Sells 70% of the region's sales volume a month
  • Has 280 outstanding Wildtrak orders
• Mid-sized dealer B
  • Sells 25% Broncos a month
  • Has 5 outstanding Wildtrak orders
• Tiny dealer C
  • Sells 5% of the region's sales volume a month
  • Has 10 outstanding Wildtrak orders

Now say the region is allocated 50 Broncos a month. Based on the constraint, we would expect roughly 11 of those to be Wildtraks. In that case we would expect the Wildtraks to be allocated as follows:

• Dealer A - 7-8 Allocations
• Dealer B - 2-3 Allocations
• Dealer C - 0-1 Allocation

So if you ordered from Dealer A, you are effectively screwed unless you were up in front of line, they just straight-up took too many orders. If you ordered from Dealer B, the most you'd have to wait for a build date is 3 months. If you ordered from Dealer C, you may be screwed, maybe not, depends on the dice roll honestly.

Some would say "Well Dealer A has more Wildtrak orders, so they should get the vast majority of the Wildtrak allocation." Sure... but then if you ordered at any of the other dealers other than Dealer A you were essentially screwed from the very beginning and never had a chance at receiving a Wildtrak. You had to order from Dealer A to get a Wildtrak. That's why the allocation system is structured the way it is.

------

SO... what does this mean.

Dealers received allocation estimates about a month ago (keyword being "estimates"). Unlike years in past, those allocation estimates had a breakdown of how much of each option/package a dealer could be expected to get. (We expect you to get 20 hard tops, 15 Wildtraks, etc. etc.).

IF dealers stick to those estimates, then anyone ordering from those dealers should be okay, and any existing orders at those dealers should also be fine. If the dealer says "eh... go ahead and order whatever the heck you want, we don't care"... then all of the customers at that dealer are basically getting screwed over and many will likely won't get built this year.

How does this impact existing order holders?? Well it depends on what your dealer did in the past. If you ordered from a dealer that took a bunch of online orders from around the country... they have WAY more orders than their past sales performance could ever support given the existing constraints. So... good luck. If you placed an order from a local dealer that didn't grab a bunch of extra orders online, then you're probably going to be okay simply because the amount of orders they received are likely proportional to their past sales performance.

I do expect Ford to prevent dealers from ordering some select options... but based on what we know now most of the responsibility is going to be placed on the dealers themselves. They have the necessarily information/estimates from Ford to understand how many orders and what options they can order. It's up to them to stick to that information, and if they don't and just open the floodgates, they're really doing a disservice to their customers.

The problem, as I se it, is Ford sends an email stating “order confirmed “. That implies the manufacturer has received it and is prepared to build. In the technological world we have today it shouldn’t be a problem accept orders based on realistic expectations (allocations). The consumer should be on a first come(order) first serve transaction. If Ford has 220 Wildtrack(Raptor) allotted to be built, the first 220 customers to place a confirmed order should get them.

Rumor has it they are going to open the order banks in late March (i don't believe it). It looks like Ford is using 2023 to catch up on all the existing orders and the order banks will reopen in August for MY 2024.