Death of ICE Vehicles

Soupcook
Jul 28, 2021

Rank VI

Jul 28, 2021

More and more, manufacturers and countries are putting deadlines on when internal combustion engines (ICE) will no longer be sold. Ford states 2035 (https://www.forbes.com/wheels/news/automaker-ev-plans/) Canada (https://electrek.co/2021/06/29/canada-ban-new-gas-powered-car-sales-2035/), UK and other countries have announced no new ICE vehicles at various times in the 2030s. Mercedes stated the last year they will sell ICE vehicles is 2030 (https://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/mercedes-benz-go-all-electric-2030-n1274708).

I think as this conversion happens, manufacturers will significantly reduce or totally eliminate ICE vehicles. Charging stations, etc. will proliferate and sources for gasoline/diesel will slowly fade away like leaded gas in the 1970s. Gasoline will always be available but the cost of gasoline will rise significantly and at some point, folks won't be able to drive any vehicle with an ICE.

I think ICE vehicles will only be driven by the very wealthy by 2050. What will happen to the ICE vehicles in the next 10 - 30 years?

I've been thinking about this as I eye the Jeep hybrid and other all-electric vehicles.
7/14: Outer Banks, Eruption Green, Lux Package, 2.7 Eco, Sasquatch Package, Roof Rack, Towing Package, HD Modular front bumper, AUX switches
Bronc96, Bike007b
Last edited by a moderator: Jul 28, 2021

Rank VI

Jul 28, 2021

#1
More and more, manufacturers and countries are putting deadlines on when internal combustion engines (ICE) will no longer be sold. Ford states 2035 (https://www.forbes.com/wheels/news/automaker-ev-plans/) Canada (https://electrek.co/2021/06/29/canada-ban-new-gas-powered-car-sales-2035/), UK and other countries have announced no new ICE vehicles at various times in the 2030s. Mercedes stated the last year they will sell ICE vehicles is 2030 (https://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/mercedes-benz-go-all-electric-2030-n1274708).

So, good question. Does fuel go up or down. Arguments on both sides. Does the lack of reliance on the middle East really happen (I know we don’t get much fuel from there).
I hope to be driving my Bronco for many years. I think this will be my last ICE purchase.


I think as this conversion happens, manufacturers will significantly reduce or totally eliminate ICE vehicles. Charging stations, etc. will proliferate and sources for gasoline/diesel will slowly fade away like leaded gas in the 1970s. Gasoline will always be available but the cost of gasoline will rise significantly and at some point, folks won't be able to drive any vehicle with an ICE.

I think ICE vehicles will only be driven by the very wealthy by 2050. What will happen to the ICE vehicles in the next 10 - 30 years?

I've been thinking about this as I eye the Jeep hybrid and other all-electric vehicles.

Rank V

Jul 29, 2021

#2
As fuel demand drops, supply will greatly overpower demand, all the infrastructure already exists to refine and distribute easily, fuel prices will drop below $1/gallon, demand for ICE vehicles will spike among the commoners since fuel already is cheaper per mile than electricity and will only become moreso, only the rich will be able to afford electric vehicles, untapped excess natural resources will be leaching from the ground and polluting wildlife refuges and killing species, dropping CO2 levels will kill off natural forests resulting in global warming, 40 years from now some mad scientist will find the blueprints for a 1969 Chevelle carved in a cave wall and win a Nobel Prize for finding a cheap way to convert toxic waste tar pits into much needed CO2 to feed wild plants and revitalize the forests, with a side effect of super cheap transportation and energy production.

Honestly, the best near term solution is a free market multiple option mix of electric and ICE. Straight abolition is a bad idea. What are you going to do, incinerate perfectly functional vehicles like that environmental and financial disaster cash for clunkers?

There are still plenty of ICE vehicles on the road 100+ years old, and new ones are significantly more reliable and efficient. There is no logical reason some of these 2021 Broncos won't still be on the road in 2121.
7/14/20 Res, took delivery 4/7/22!!
A51 2 door Badlands, 2.7L, Sasquatch, Lux, MGV, MIC, Roof Rails, Tow
Deano Bronc

Rank VI

Jul 29, 2021

#3
Who knows what the future will bring, but I wouldn't worry about it too much.

The limiter on the lifespan of modern cars isn't going to be the mechanicals. It will be the electronics. In 15, 20, 25 years from now if you need a new engine or transmission it will be easy enough to find something to swap it out for, even if original parts aren't available. Hell, who knows, maybe you'll be doing a fusion conversion like Doc had done to the Delorian. The infotainment, ECU, and other control chips are a different story. Will Ford, Tesla et. al. have sufficient warranty supply to replace? You sure won't be able to get one new because any company that manufacturers microchips will have long since moved on from the technology the software in your ride would recognize. And since automotive software is completely closed source, there's no rewriting it and recompiling it for future modern hardware. Manufacturers certainly could, but why would they invest to do it? There's no additional revenue to be made from rewriting software for a 20 year old car.

Enjoy what makes you happy now because if you try to futureproof your current day purchase decision, technology will move in a different direction than what you tried to future proof against.

PS. Having said that, I ordered the Lux package, haha!
‘22, 4 door Badlands, 2.3l, MT, MIC top, lux, Sasquatch, tow. Velocity Blue.
Build Complete --> 5/5/2022. Delivered 5/25/2022.
Bronco Nation #1115
JoergH, Munky

Rank VI

Jul 29, 2021

#4
Who knows what the future will bring, but I wouldn't worry about it too much.

The limiter on the lifespan of modern cars isn't going to be the mechanicals. It will be the electronics. In 15, 20, 25 years from now if you need a new engine or transmission it will be easy enough to find something to swap it out for, even if original parts aren't available. Hell, who knows, maybe you'll be doing a fusion conversion like Doc had done to the Delorian. The infotainment, ECU, and other control chips are a different story. Will Ford, Tesla et. al. have sufficient warranty supply to replace? You sure won't be able to get one new because any company that manufacturers microchips will have long since moved on from the technology the software in your ride would recognize. And since automotive software is completely closed source, there's no rewriting it and recompiling it for future modern hardware. Manufacturers certainly could, but why would they invest to do it? There's no additional revenue to be made from rewriting software for a 20 year old car.

Enjoy what makes you happy now because if you try to futureproof your current day purchase decision, technology will move in a different direction than what you tried to future proof against.

PS. Having said that, I ordered the Lux package, haha!
Great points on the electronics...5 years and they are outdated.
7/14: Outer Banks, Eruption Green, Lux Package, 2.7 Eco, Sasquatch Package, Roof Rack, Towing Package, HD Modular front bumper, AUX switches
SlashRacer, KennyMac

Rank VI

Jul 29, 2021

#5
As fuel demand drops, supply will greatly overpower demand, all the infrastructure already exists to refine and distribute easily, fuel prices will drop below $1/gallon, demand for ICE vehicles will spike among the commoners since fuel already is cheaper per mile than electricity and will only become moreso, only the rich will be able to afford electric vehicles, untapped excess natural resources will be leaching from the ground and polluting wildlife refuges and killing species, dropping CO2 levels will kill off natural forests resulting in global warming, 40 years from now some mad scientist will find the blueprints for a 1969 Chevelle carved in a cave wall and win a Nobel Prize for finding a cheap way to convert toxic waste tar pits into much needed CO2 to feed wild plants and revitalize the forests, with a side effect of super cheap transportation and energy production.

Honestly, the best near term solution is a free market multiple option mix of electric and ICE. Straight abolition is a bad idea. What are you going to do, incinerate perfectly functional vehicles like that environmental and financial disaster cash for clunkers?

There are still plenty of ICE vehicles on the road 100+ years old, and new ones are significantly more reliable and efficient. There is no logical reason some of these 2021 Broncos won't still be on the road in 2121.
I doubt fuel (gas and diesel) prices will fall. The petroleum industry infrastructure is aged and failing coast-coast. Underground pipelines are expensive to maintain and even more difficult to build new pipelines. As the production plants age out and the demand for fuel falls, those plants will be strategically closed. Fuel will become more and more difficult to purchase. I remember thirty years ago, some expert (I don't remember) stated that we will never run out of fossil fuels...they will just become less and less available as supplies diminish and the resulting increase in price will force alternatives like electric. I think we have reached that tipping point.

I wonder when Bronco will be offered in all-electric? There has to be a way to recharge off-road vehicles in the field.
7/14: Outer Banks, Eruption Green, Lux Package, 2.7 Eco, Sasquatch Package, Roof Rack, Towing Package, HD Modular front bumper, AUX switches

Rank V

Jul 29, 2021

#6
Watch the Bronco vs Rubicon vs defender video. They ran the 4fx in electric only mode on the trail, range dropped over 80% vs on road, and I'm sure any all electric will experience similar drops in 4x4. We are a long way from being able to wheel an all electric any sort of distance.

I've been thinking of charging in the field since they announced the Hummer ev. There's no way to use for overlanding without a way to recharge overnight. I figure if I can come up with a way, these guys spending $100k+ on a hummer would pay nearly 10k for a way to recharge off the grid. Honestly, I think that will eventually turn into a bigger and bigger deal.
7/14/20 Res, took delivery 4/7/22!!
A51 2 door Badlands, 2.7L, Sasquatch, Lux, MGV, MIC, Roof Rails, Tow

Rank VI

Jul 29, 2021

#7
Watch the Bronco vs Rubicon vs defender video. They ran the 4fx in electric only mode on the trail, range dropped over 80% vs on road, and I'm sure any all electric will experience similar drops in 4x4. We are a long way from being able to wheel an all electric any sort of distance.

I've been thinking of charging in the field since they announced the Hummer ev. There's no way to use for overlanding without a way to recharge overnight. I figure if I can come up with a way, these guys spending $100k+ on a hummer would pay nearly 10k for a way to recharge off the grid. Honestly, I think that will eventually turn into a bigger and bigger deal.
REALLY long extension cord?

Collapsible solar panel (although wouldn't do much good for charging over night)?

Lightning rod?
‘22, 4 door Badlands, 2.3l, MT, MIC top, lux, Sasquatch, tow. Velocity Blue.
Build Complete --> 5/5/2022. Delivered 5/25/2022.
Bronco Nation #1115
Broncofly, SlashRacer

Rank IV

Jul 29, 2021

#8
REALLY long extension cord?

Collapsible solar panel (although wouldn't do much good for charging over night)?

Lightning rod?

Gas generator? Oh wait....
Badlands - 4DR - Area 51 - 2.7 - MIC - Lux - MGV - Tow - Upgraded Wheels with BFG KO2s
1Five1 Garage, Munky

Rank VI

Jul 29, 2021

#9
More and more, manufacturers and countries are putting deadlines on when internal combustion engines (ICE) will no longer be sold. Ford states 2035 (https://www.forbes.com/wheels/news/automaker-ev-plans/) Canada (https://electrek.co/2021/06/29/canada-ban-new-gas-powered-car-sales-2035/), UK and other countries have announced no new ICE vehicles at various times in the 2030s. Mercedes stated the last year they will sell ICE vehicles is 2030 (https://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/mercedes-benz-go-all-electric-2030-n1274708).

I think as this conversion happens, manufacturers will significantly reduce or totally eliminate ICE vehicles. Charging stations, etc. will proliferate and sources for gasoline/diesel will slowly fade away like leaded gas in the 1970s. Gasoline will always be available but the cost of gasoline will rise significantly and at some point, folks won't be able to drive any vehicle with an ICE.

I think ICE vehicles will only be driven by the very wealthy by 2050. What will happen to the ICE vehicles in the next 10 - 30 years?

I've been thinking about this as I eye the Jeep hybrid and other all-electric vehicles.
Oh yes I can't wait for the day when we have 20 chargers at electric/ gas stations and 30 people waiting on a charge. Battery technology will have to significantly improve before I even consider adopting. Of course the problem will be in city areas and rural areas will of course be much lighter traffic.
Wildtrak, 4DR, Iconic Silver, High, Camo Seats.
KennyMac

Gladesmen

Jul 29, 2021

#10
REALLY long extension cord?

Collapsible solar panel (although wouldn't do much good for charging over night)?

Lightning rod?
Bring a generator to charge it. LOL
Edit: you beat me to it. I need to refresh more.
Bronco Nation 1100. Everglades, Desert Sand
Res: 7/30/20 ordered 1/22/21 reorder 10/15/21 changed to Everglades 3/9/22 schedule 8/29/22 bumped to 9/5; 9/7/22 blend, 9/9 Mods, 9/26/22 completed, 10/7 shipped, 11/3/22 delivery
SlashRacer, KennyMac

Mud,Sweat and Gears

Jul 29, 2021

#11
With companies working on carbon capture, I think the panic move toward EVs will subside and the stupid rush to eliminate gasoline powered cars will end.There will be money in carbon capture to use it as raw material/feedstock.
Remember the hole in the ozone layer? No one talks about it anymore, in a few years no one will be talking about carbon.They will be bleating about something else.
Buckin Bronco, Bronc96

Mud,Sweat and Gears

Jul 29, 2021

#12
Gas generator? Oh wait....
teslagen.jpg
Broncofly, 1Five1 Garage

Rank I

Jul 29, 2021

#13
Once we achieve reasonably long ranges on electric 4X4s, the gig will be up. Overlanders typically stop for water, fuel, and food anyway on a periodic basis, and staying a bit longer to charge up the truck seems reasonable. The major issue, right now, with that is nothing but infrastructure. The future is EV, though I personally would like to see more hydrogen adoption. A hydrogen EV could give you a greater range than even a regular 4X4 with some Jerry cans.

But, for both full electric and hydrogen, there just isn't the infrastructure. As the larger auto companies adopt these technologies, we'll probably see a slow but substantial roll out. In 5-10 years, full electric 4X4s will not be uncommon.
Broncofly

Rank VI

Jul 30, 2021

#14
Oh yes I can't wait for the day when we have 20 chargers at electric/ gas stations and 30 people waiting on a charge. Battery technology will have to significantly improve before I even consider adopting. Of course the problem will be in city areas and rural areas will of course be much lighter traffic.
It will happen...but, there is opportunity for those who plan. I think the entire wrecker service will have to be reimagined. Carry a generator or quick charge system to help them limp to a charging point? Establish charging stations around town with credit card access. These could be like Subway franchises all over town. Cables, connectors and other needs (think smart phone accessory stores) need to be affordable and accessible. I read that some cites are requiring a 220 VAC charging power point be installed in every garage being built so the home is prepared to install electric vehicle charger systems.

The big deal is battery life on off-road vehicles and how to recharge the battery in the field. Instead of jerry cans of gasoline, there might be spare batteries for quick charge or to get you somewhere accessible to power.

I know little about electric cars, but the tipping point for ICE vehicles is within the next 20 years and those who are prepared will be rewarded.
7/14: Outer Banks, Eruption Green, Lux Package, 2.7 Eco, Sasquatch Package, Roof Rack, Towing Package, HD Modular front bumper, AUX switches

Rank VI

Jul 30, 2021

#15
Watch the Bronco vs Rubicon vs defender video. They ran the 4fx in electric only mode on the trail, range dropped over 80% vs on road, and I'm sure any all electric will experience similar drops in 4x4. We are a long way from being able to wheel an all electric any sort of distance.

I've been thinking of charging in the field since they announced the Hummer ev. There's no way to use for overlanding without a way to recharge overnight. I figure if I can come up with a way, these guys spending $100k+ on a hummer would pay nearly 10k for a way to recharge off the grid. Honestly, I think that will eventually turn into a bigger and bigger deal.
Now you're thinking...huge opportunities...
7/14: Outer Banks, Eruption Green, Lux Package, 2.7 Eco, Sasquatch Package, Roof Rack, Towing Package, HD Modular front bumper, AUX switches

Rank V

Jul 30, 2021

#16
It's fun to try to prophesize to start discussion, but no one can predict the future. As an engineer, I see the problems with current electric vehicles. Range, charging time being the biggest. But what about waste disposal? Lithium batteries are the nuclear waste of this generation. There is no real plan on what to do with just a few thousand large vehicle batteries (today), when expired. What do you do when 1/2 of the cars are lithium, that's 100 million times several hundred pounds? It's like the water problem out West, no one talks about it, they just keep building developments. Yet our water supply in Tucson is a finite amount...it will never go up, adding thousands of new homes requires more water. Yet....there is none. Same with the lithium problem, the big elephant in the room.
Broncofly, Big Ragu

Rank V

Jul 30, 2021

#17
What about the power requirements for charging electric vehicles? Right now, the power comes for "free" right out of the ground. Wind farms won't do it, and they have a big environmental negative impact. If you replace "free power" for 2.7 Billion vehicles world wide with "needs electricity", how much MORE electricity do you need to produce? Are people ready for nuclear power yet? Because I've predicted for decades that is the only option for human future needs. But no one wants it nor can they get rid of that waste either (nor the lithium).

A lot of pipe dreams and idealistic hopes on electric - without thinking through the engineering and environmental problems. Besides the user problems....
Bronc96, Soupcook

Rank IV

Jul 30, 2021

#18
Another big elephant in the room is where this electricy comes from..... It doesn't just materialize. Still a LOT of coal burning power plants on the grid. Burn fossil fuels in the car or burn fossil fuels to charge the cars....
Badlands - 4DR - Area 51 - 2.7 - MIC - Lux - MGV - Tow - Upgraded Wheels with BFG KO2s
Bronc96, Soupcook

Rank V

Jul 30, 2021

#19
...I know little about electric cars, but the tipping point for ICE vehicles is within the next 20 years and those who are prepared will be rewarded.
And those the choose technology poorly will be punished.

So I will prophesize: Fuel cells will be the power source of future personal vehicles (cars-trucks), not lithium batteries. And were will the hydrogen come from? Nuclear power plants next to the ocean, creating hydrogen from H2O. The technology is proven and present, but hydrogen storage is bulky and needs solving. You can buy a fuel cell generator or Honda car now.

https://automobiles.honda.com/clarity-fuel-cell#differences
Bronc96, Soupcook

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